Comprehensive Candidate & Race Analysis
Date: April 3, 2026 (original) | Updated: April 14, 2026 | Election: May 5, 2026 (22 days)
Race: Licking County Commissioner (Rick Black seat, term expires 12/31/2026)
RACE FUNDAMENTALS
| Field | Detail | Verified | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | Rick Black's seat (President, Board of Commissioners) | YES | lickingcounty.gov |
| Rick Black status | CONFIRMED NOT RUNNING. Open seat. Black did not file for re-election. | CONFIRMED | Client confirmed Apr 3 |
| Primary type | Republican primary (5-way) + Democratic primary (1 candidate, uncontested) | YES | BOE certified list |
| General election | R primary winner vs. Mary K. McLeish (D, Newark) in November 2026 | YES | BOE certified list |
| Registered voters | 124,807 total | 24,081 Republican | 5,792 Democrat | CONFIRMED | Licking County BOE |
| Expected R primary turnout | 14,000-18,000 (even-year primary + Newark income tax issue) | ESTIMATE | Regression analysis |
| Votes needed to win | 3,500-5,000 in a 5-way split | ESTIMATE | Based on turnout range |
Newark Income Tax Issue — CONFIRMED ON BALLOT
Newark Ordinance No. 25-48: 0.5% additional income tax levy for Police and Fire Protection, specifically dedicated. This is a second attempt — voters rejected it previously. Newark is entering 2026 with an $8 million deficit.
Impact on our race: This drives Newark-specific turnout, which benefits Jeff Rath (Newark resident, 16yr council). Mark's base is in SW Licking County (Hebron, Pataskala, Harrison Twp) — the income tax issue does NOT drive turnout in his territory.
Newark Fiscal Distress Update — Apr 14, 2026
New intel (First State Update, Apr 11): Newark City Council holding special meeting Wednesday, April 15, 2026 to consider three additional charter amendments authorizing new local taxes BEYOND the 0.5% income tax already on the May 5 ballot:
- Alcoholic Liquor Tax — up to 3% on retail alcohol sales (previously failed, being reconsidered with new council composition)
- Lodging Tax — hotel/motel stays within Newark
- Rental Tax — still under council deliberation
Each measure requires supermajority council approval, then goes to the Ohio General Assembly for final authorization. If approved, Newark would gain the authority to implement up to four separate new taxes simultaneously.
Strategic implication: Newark's fiscal situation is deeper than the known $8M deficit. The city is now scrambling for any revenue source available. Jeff Rath served 16 years on Newark City Council (through May 2025) — the conditions that produced this crisis developed on his watch. This sharpens his primary vulnerability and gives Mark a clear messaging lane: "Newark is out of money and out of answers. Don't let Licking County become the next Newark."
Source: First State Update — Newark to Vote on Three Additional Taxes
Other Ballot Issues (May 5, 2026)
- Alexandria Village: 0.5% income tax increase to 1.5%
- Various school levies and township issues (check BOE issues PDF for complete list)
CANDIDATE INTELLIGENCE MATRIX
✅ = VERIFIED | ⚠️ = PARTIALLY VERIFIED | ❌ = GAP (NEEDS RESEARCH)
| Intelligence Category | Van Buren | Rath | Bogantz | Smith | Snedden |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full name | ✅ Mark A. Van Buren | ✅ Jeff Rath | ✅ William George Bogantz II | ⚠️ Gregory Smith | ✅ James Snedden Jr. |
| Age/DOB | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ b. 2/24/1961 (65) | ❌ | ✅ 79 years old |
| Address | ✅ 12461 Cable Rd, Pataskala 43062 | ✅ 1685 W Greer Dr, Newark 43055 | ✅ 4709 Sportsman Club Rd NW, Johnstown 43031 | ⚠️ Newark | ✅ St. Louisville (Eden Twp) |
| Education | ✅ MBA Finance, Mount Vernon Nazarene | ⚠️ US Sports Academy (degree unknown) | ✅ Purdue University | ❌ | ❌ |
| Employer | ✅ Real estate + Van Buren Acres farm | ✅ Spectrum — Sr Direct Sales Rep | ✅ Superior Real Estate LLC (owner/broker, launched 2023 — conflict of interest with anti-development stance) | ❌ | ✅ Retired (Newark AFB, guidance systems) |
| Military | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ Navy veteran, 2 tours Vietnam (admits switching to R is "a smart move") |
| Family | ✅ Wife: Catherine Baird (business attorney) | ❌ | ✅ Wife: Melodie (34yr), 6 children, hobby farm | ❌ | ✅ Divorced, daughter + son |
| Elected experience | ✅ Harrison Twp Trustee 25yr (1997-2008, 2010-present, messaging figure), Licking County Commissioner 2008, Kirkersville Village Council 1996, OTA Director, TID VP | ✅ Newark City Council Ward 3 — 16yr (LOST primary May 2025) | ✅ Liberty Twp Trustee | ⚠️ Licking Twp Trustee candidate 2025 (got 19.32%) | ❌ No elected office found |
| Committee name | ✅ Citizens for Van Buren | ✅ Neighbors for Rath | ⚠️ Supporters of Bill Bogantz (2017 trustee, reused?) | ❌ | ❌ |
| Website | ✅ citizensforvanburen.com (Cloudflare Pages) | ❌ jeffrath.com PARKED | ✅ billbogantz.com (Canva) | ❌ None found | ❌ None found |
| Facebook page | ✅ Mark Van Buren For Commissioner | ✅ Neighbors for Rath | ✅ Supporters of Bill Bogantz | ❌ None found | ❌ None found |
| ❌ None | ❌ None | ⚠️ Reported but unverified | ❌ | ❌ | |
| ❌ | ✅ linkedin.com/in/jeff-rath-479b417 | ✅ linkedin.com/in/william-g-bogantz-ii-58561222 | ❌ | ❌ | |
| Meta Ads running | ✅ LIVE — 24 active across 4 campaigns A/B/C/Traffic ($62/day), $116.46 spent (Meta) | ❌ Zero | ✅ 13 ads, ~$500-800 spend, endorsement format (Houser, Salvage), active since Mar 8 | ❌ Zero | ❌ Zero |
| Google Ads running | ✅ LIVE — Search + YouTube active, verification cleared Apr 14. Geo + keyword cleanup deployed Apr 14 after Pender County NC incident. | ❌ Zero | ❌ Zero | ❌ Zero | ❌ Zero |
| LCRP endorsement | ⚠️ No endorsement (LCRP explicitly did not endorse any commissioner candidate) | ❌ None (but LCRP hosted fundraiser Mar 23) | ❌ None | ❌ None | ❌ None |
| Campaign finance filed | ❌ Need to check Ohio SOS | ❌ Need to check | ❌ Need to check | ❌ Need to check | ❌ Need to check |
| Key issues | ✅ Fiscal conservatism, ag zoning, TID/Intel, experience | ✅ Growth, infrastructure, planning, public safety | ✅ Anti-solar, local control, anti-development | ❌ Unknown | ⚠️ Roads, mental health, homelessness |
| Party history | ✅ Republican | ✅ Republican | ✅ Republican | ✅ Republican | ⚠️ Libertarian (2010) → Democrat (2024) → Republican (2026) |
THREAT ASSESSMENT (UPDATED)
1. Jeff Rath — THREAT: HIGH
Strengths: Newark name ID (16yr council), LCRP fundraiser support, Public Safety Chair, "Neighbors for Rath" FB page, infrastructure/growth platform
Critical weakness: Lost his own Republican primary 35-65% to Molly Ingold (May 2025). His own ward rejected him by 30 points less than a year ago.
Secondary weakness: No website (parked domain), no digital ads, cable sales career, US Sports Academy education (not MBA)
Geographic base: Newark — benefits from income tax ballot issue driving Newark turnout
Oppo report: COMPLETED (R2: clients/vanburen/oppo-jeff-rath-2026-04-03.pdf)
Update Apr 14: Still zero digital presence (no ads, parked domain, no Meta activity). New Newark fiscal distress intel sharpens Rath's primary vulnerability — four separate tax measures on the table (income, liquor, lodging, rental) directly tie to his 16-year council tenure. The crisis developed on his watch. Primary narrative lane confirmed: Newark fiscal failure vs. Mark's 25 years of township fiscal discipline.
2. Bill Bogantz — THREAT: MEDIUM
Strengths: Only competitor running Meta ads, Canva website exists, anti-solar position resonates with rural voters, Purdue education, 36yr resident, real estate knowledge, family man (6 kids)
Critical weakness: Real estate broker who profits from property values — anti-development position benefits his business. Conflict of interest.
Secondary weakness: "Hobby farm" (not a real farming operation), low ad spend (<$500), Canva website (amateur), no LCRP fundraiser
Geographic base: Liberty Township / Johnstown — NW Licking County
Oppo report: COMPLETED (R2: clients/vanburen/oppo-bill-bogantz-2026-04-03.pdf)
Update Apr 14: Campaign C launched Apr 12 (7 ads) as direct counter to his endorsement format. Mark's cards lead with current credentials (OTA Director, Fire District VP, Farm Bureau Treasurer) vs. Bogantz borrowing credibility from former officeholders.
3. Gregory Smith — THREAT: LOW
Strengths: None identified
Critical weakness: Ran for Licking Township Trustee in 2025 and got only 19.32% of the vote. No website, no Facebook, no ads, no LinkedIn, no media coverage, no Ballotpedia bio.
Assessment: Ghost candidate. No campaign infrastructure, no public profile, no media presence. The 19.32% in a trustee race shows he can't win even a small-turnout local election.
GAP: We know almost nothing about this person. No background, no employer, no issues. NEED: Who is he? Why is he running?
4. James Snedden Jr. — THREAT: LOW
Strengths: Navy Vietnam veteran (2 tours), community activist, persistent (ran for commissioner at least 3 times)
Critical weakness: Triple party-switcher: Libertarian (2010) → Democrat (2024) → Republican (2026). In 2010 he filed a complaint as a Libertarian about party bias. In 2024 he ran as a Democrat against Tim Bubb. Now he's running as a Republican. This destroys credibility in a Republican primary.
Secondary weakness: 79 years old, no elected experience, no website, no ads, no campaign infrastructure, "complainer" self-description
Assessment: Perennial candidate. His party-switching history makes him a non-factor in a Republican primary. He's running to complain, not to win. BUT — his presence on the ballot pulls a small number of anti-establishment votes.
5. Mary K. McLeish (D) — IRRELEVANT TO PRIMARY
Sole Democratic candidate. Uncontested in her primary. She will face the R winner in November. No research needed now — revisit after May 5 if Mark wins.
GAPS & ACTION ITEMS
CRITICAL GAPS (Need before ads launch)
| # | Gap | Why It Matters | How to Fill |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~~1~~ | ~~Rick Black status~~ | RESOLVED — Confirmed not running. Open seat. | Confirmed Apr 3 |
| 2 | Ohio SOS campaign finance filings — no data on any candidate's donors or spending | Donor lists reveal alliances, spending reveals seriousness | Pull filings from ohiosos.gov/campaign-finance for all 5 R candidates |
| 3 | Mark's actual age/DOB | Needed for ad creative, contrast messaging | Ask Mark directly |
| 4 | Gregory Smith identity | We know nothing about this candidate. Even a ghost can pull votes. | Public records search, Licking Township records, social media deep search |
| 5 | Voter file / district data | Need precinct-level R primary turnout history to target | Partial data: 124,807 total registered voters confirmed. Precinct-level breakdown still needed. BOE public records request or Ohio voter file purchase. |
| 16 | Ballotpedia page for Mark | Jeff Rath and Gregory Smith have Ballotpedia pages. Mark does not. High-value backlink + first-page search result for candidate-name queries. | Mark to complete Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey |
MEDIUM GAPS (Need before mid-campaign)
| # | Gap | Why It Matters | How to Fill |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Neighbors for Rath FB page — follower count, posting frequency, engagement | Measures Rath's actual grassroots support | Playwright or direct Facebook visit |
| 7 | Bogantz Meta Ad Library details — creative content, targeting, full spend | Know what voters are seeing from the competition | Meta Ad Library search via browser |
| 8 | C-TEC Forum — expected mid-April | Need to know format, moderator, who's attending | Check Newark Advocate, Reporting Project, C-TEC website |
| 9 | Endorsements for any candidate — newspapers, organizations, elected officials | Affects voter decisions | Monitor Newark Advocate, LCRP, local orgs |
| 10 | Mark's FB page metrics — current followers, reach, engagement rate | Baseline before we start running ads | Already have admin access. 733 followers as of Apr 14, 28d engagement in dashboard. |
LOW GAPS (Nice to have)
| # | Gap | How to Fill |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jeff Rath military service (if any) | LinkedIn or public records |
| 12 | Rath's specific council voting record | Newark City Council minutes |
| 13 | Bogantz real estate listings/sales in Licking County | Homes.com / Realtor.com public records |
| 14 | Snedden's 2024 general election vote total vs. Bubb | BOE 2024 results |
| 15 | All candidates' property tax records | County auditor website |
STRATEGIC ASSUMPTIONS — REGRESSION TEST
| # | Assumption | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | This is an open seat (Black not running) | ✅ CONFIRMED — Rick Black is not running. Open seat. | Client confirmed Apr 3 |
| 2 | 5-way R primary, votes split roughly evenly | ✅ CONFIRMED — Effectively a 3-way (Van Buren, Rath, Bogantz). Smith and Snedden are non-factors. | Smith got 19% in trustee race, Snedden triple party-switcher |
| 3 | Rath is the biggest threat | ✅ CONFIRMED — LCRP support, Newark base, name ID, government experience. Primary loss is his weakness. | LCRP fundraiser, FB page, 16yr council |
| 4 | Newark income tax drives Newark turnout | ✅ CONFIRMED — 0.5% levy for police/fire on May 5 ballot, $8M city deficit, second attempt | BOE issues PDF, Reporting Project |
| 5 | Meta cannot target by party registration | ✅ CONFIRMED — banned Jan 2022. Must use behavioral proxies. | Meta ad policy |
| 6 | No candidate has professional digital advertising | ✅ CONFIRMED AND WIDENED — Van Buren now running 4 Meta campaigns (27 ads), Google Search + YouTube (both active), Meta Pixel + GA4 + Google Ads conversion tag on website. Bogantz still at amateur-level Canva ads. 3:1 Meta ad spend advantage and exclusive Google/YouTube presence. | Meta Ad Library, Google Ad Transparency |
| 7 | No LCRP endorsement for commissioner | ✅ CONFIRMED — LCRP endorsed other races but explicitly did not endorse commissioner. However, LCRP hosted Rath fundraiser (implicit support). | LCRP website, Ballotpedia |
| 8 | Snedden is a party-switcher | ✅ CONFIRMED AND WORSE — Libertarian (2010) → Democrat (2024) → Republican (2026). Three parties in 16 years. | Independent Political Report, Ballotpedia, BOE records |
| 9 | Smith is a weak candidate | ✅ CONFIRMED — 19.32% in a Licking Township trustee race (2025). No campaign infrastructure whatsoever. | Ballotpedia, election results |
| 10 | Van Buren's 25yr public service record is unique in this field | ✅ CONFIRMED — Rath had 16yr but lost. Bogantz is trustee but shorter tenure. Smith/Snedden have minimal/no elected experience. | Cross-candidate comparison |
| 11 | Google election verification would clear in ~10 business days | ✅ CONFIRMED — Resubmitted Apr 13, serving impressions by Apr 14 (1 business day). Apr 4 original submission was stuck at APPROVED_LIMITED with zero serving for 9 days. Resubmission via troubleshooter form was the working path. | See lessons-google-ads-election-verification.md |
| 12 | Keyword broad match + missing geo would deliver quality local traffic | ❌ WRONG — Before geo/keyword cleanup, 8 of 9 Google clicks came from Pender County NC searches for local commissioner meetings. Broad-match "county commissioner" matched nationally. Fixed Apr 14 with PRESENCE-only Licking County + PHRASE/EXACT match types + 43 campaign negatives. | Search Terms report Apr 14 |
RACE DYNAMICS SUMMARY
The effective race is a 3-way primary: Van Buren vs. Rath vs. Bogantz. Smith and Snedden are ballot noise.
Geographic split:
- Newark + east Licking County: Rath territory. Income tax issue drives his base turnout.
- NW Licking County (Johnstown, Liberty Twp): Bogantz territory. Rural, anti-development.
- SW Licking County (Hebron, Pataskala, Harrison Twp): Van Buren territory. Farm country, suburban growth.
- Uncontested territory: Granville, Heath, Buckeye Lake, all other townships — no candidate claims these areas. First to reach them wins them.
The winning strategy: Lock down SW Licking County (Mark's base), win the uncontested middle (Granville, Heath, rural townships), and steal votes from Rath in Newark suburbs by positioning Mark as the experienced fiscal conservative vs. Rath who lost his own primary.
Ad budget advantage (as of Apr 14): Mark is now running 4 Meta campaigns (24 active ads, $62/day) plus active Google Search and YouTube ads. $126.91 spent to date with ~$2,373 remaining across channels. Bogantz's total estimated spend of $500-800 is the only opposing investment — Mark already exceeds that on Meta alone and has exclusive claim to Google/YouTube inventory. The digital advantage has widened since the original April 3 analysis.