Licking County Commissioner — Republican Primary, May 5, 2026

Prepared by: Bull Moose Strategy LLC
Date: April 3, 2026
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL — Campaign Strategy Material
Sources: Public records, news archives, social media, government databases

Apr 14 Addendum — Newark Fiscal Distress

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Jeff Rath is the highest-threat candidate in the 5-way Republican primary. He has 16 years of elected experience on Newark City Council, LCRP-organized fundraising support, an active Facebook campaign page ("Neighbors for Rath"), and name recognition in Newark — the county's largest city. However, he carries a significant vulnerability: he lost his own council seat in a Republican primary less than a year ago by a 35-65 margin. He has no campaign website, no digital advertising, and is relying entirely on party connections and ground game.

Threat Level: HIGH
Primary Vulnerability: Lost his own primary 35-65%

CANDIDATE PROFILE

ELECTORAL HISTORY

Key Finding: 2025 Primary Loss

Jeff Rath was defeated in his own Republican primary by Molly Ingold on May 6, 2025. After 16 years representing Ward 3, his own constituents rejected him by a 30-point margin (35% to 65%). Ingold went on to win the general election with 60% of the vote.

Significance for the Commissioner race: Rath couldn't hold his own ward against a challenger. He's now asking the entire county to trust him with a bigger job less than a year after his own voters said no. This is the single most powerful argument against his candidacy.

COUNCIL RECORD & POLICY POSITIONS

Homeless Camping Ordinance (October 2024)

Rath voted YES on Ordinance 24-36, which made it illegal for unhoused people to camp on public property in Newark. The ordinance passed 7-1 and generated significant controversy:
- Opponents called it criminalizing homelessness when no housing was available
- Packed city council chambers with passionate testimony on both sides
- The United Way of Licking County highlighted the controversy
- Multiple Columbus TV stations covered it (ABC6, NBC4, Fox28, 10TV)
- Patricia Perry of Newark Homeless Outreach questioned how homelessness can be criminalized when there is no housing available

Significance: This is a double-edged sword. In a Republican primary, the "law and order" position may play well. But it also shows a willingness to criminalize poverty, which could be used against him in a general election or in earned media.

Infrastructure

• Supported increasing Newark's road paving budget to $1.5 million/year
• Served on Economic Development Committee

Public Safety

• Chaired the Public Safety Committee
• Supported legislation on dog attack prevention
• Supporter of HOME Court (Housing Opportunities through Municipal Engagement), a diversion program for unsheltered individuals

Party & Organizational Connections

• Former President, Licking County Patriots Club (2010-2014) — grassroots conservative organization
• LCRP Central Committee member — party insider
• LCRP Executive Committee member — inner circle access
• Republican party volunteer — worked on multiple campaigns
• Assessment: Rath has deeper party infrastructure connections than any other candidate. Patriots Club + Central Committee + Executive Committee = institutional Republican support that goes beyond the LCRP-hosted fundraiser.

Committee Service (Newark City Council)

• President Pro-Tem of Newark City Council
• Vice Chair, Capital Improvement Committee
• Chair, Public Safety Committee
• Member, Public Service Committee
• Member, Street Committee
• Member, Rules Committee
• Member, Personnel Committee (oversees AFSCME, FOP, IAFF union relations)

CAMPAIGN INFRASTRUCTURE

Digital Presence

Campaign Organization

• Committee: Neighbors for Rath (registered with Board of Elections)
• LCRP Support: Licking County Republican Party hosted a fundraiser for Rath on March 23, 2026. Contact: Jenn @ (419) 236-1070
• LCRP Endorsement: No formal LCRP endorsement for any commissioner candidate. However, the LCRP hosting his fundraiser signals implicit support.
• Announcement: Announced candidacy during public comment at Pataskala City Council meeting

Facebook Feed Analysis (crawled Apr 3)

• Listening tour strategy: Rath is attending council/trustee meetings across the county — Granville Village Council, Etna Township, Heath City Council, Licking County Chamber Groundhog Breakfast
• Community positioning: Shared Newark lead water line replacement program info — positioning as community servant, not just politician
• Ice Cream Social fundraiser at Downtown Ice Cream Parlor (recent, engaged)
• Comment engagement: Voter from Hebron (Mark's territory) asked for a yard sign — Rath expanding geographically
• Contact listed: [email protected]
• Assessment: Rath's ground game is stronger than his digital presence suggests. He's physically showing up at meetings across the county, building name recognition through in-person attendance. This is the opposite of a digital strategy — it's a handshake campaign.

Financial

• Campaign finance filings available at Ohio Secretary of State (ohiosos.gov/campaign-finance)
• LCRP fundraiser suggests institutional donor network
• No FEC filings (local race, not federal)

STRENGTHS

1. Name recognition in Newark — 16 years on council means most Newark voters know his name. Newark is the county seat and largest city.
2. LCRP institutional support — party hosting his fundraiser suggests establishment backing, donor introductions, and voter file access
3. Government experience — can claim "I've done the work" on budgets, infrastructure, and public safety
4. Committee chairmanships — Public Safety Chair gives credibility on law enforcement issues
5. Geographic advantage — Newark voters turn out at higher rates, and the May 5 ballot includes a Newark income tax issue that will drive Newark-specific turnout

VULNERABILITIES

1. Lost His Own Primary (CRITICAL)

His own Republican voters rejected him 35-65. After 16 years, Ward 3 voters chose a newcomer by a 30-point margin. If he couldn't convince the voters who knew him best, why should the rest of the county trust him?

Potential messaging: "If your own neighbors don't think you're the right person for the job, why should the rest of Licking County?"

2. No Campaign Website

Running for county commissioner with no website in 2026 signals either:
- A campaign that doesn't take digital seriously (disqualifying for a modern government role)
- Insufficient resources to build basic infrastructure
- Over-reliance on party machinery rather than direct voter engagement

3. No Digital Advertising

Zero paid ads on any platform. Relying entirely on yard signs, LCRP network, and personal connections. This limits his reach to voters he can physically touch.

4. Cable Sales Career

Current employer is Spectrum — his LinkedIn title is "Senior Residential Connectivity Specialist" (residential cable/internet sales since Apr 2021, previously "Direct Sales Representative" from Mar 2020). Prior to Spectrum, his LinkedIn shows only the council position — no other professional career history listed. Total listed experience: ~25 years, almost entirely city council + cable sales. No background in finance, budgeting, agriculture, or county-level governance. Compare to Van Buren's MBA in Finance and 25 years of township leadership. Also contrast with Bogantz's Fortune 500 executive career — Rath has the weakest professional background in the field.

5. Pataskala Announcement

Rath announced his run at a Pataskala City Council meeting — a city where he doesn't serve and has no official role. This could be seen as political opportunism or carpetbagging if he's perceived as trying to expand beyond his Newark base.

6. Homeless Ordinance Controversy

While the vote may play well in a Republican primary, it generated negative press across Columbus media markets. In a general election, this becomes a liability.

COUNTER-MESSAGING FRAMEWORK

If Rath attacks Van Buren's experience:

Response: "I've served 25 years of township leadership — Harrison Township Trustee since 1997, OTA Director, Fire District VP. Jeff served 16 years on council — and his own voters chose someone else."

If Rath claims government experience:

Response: "There's a difference between sitting on a city council and 25 years of hands-on public service. I've managed budgets, protected farmland, and built infrastructure. Jeff sold cable."

If Rath claims LCRP support:

Response: "The party didn't endorse anyone in this race. I'm running for the people, not the party. That's how it should be."

If Rath claims Newark knowledge:

Response: "Licking County is more than Newark. As a farmer and township trustee, I represent the rural communities that Newark-focused politicians forget."

MONITORING RECOMMENDATIONS

1. "Neighbors for Rath" Facebook page — monitor for posts, endorsements, event announcements
2. LCRP website — watch for additional fundraisers or implicit endorsements
3. Newark Advocate — local media coverage of commissioner race
4. Meta Ad Library — alert if Rath starts running paid ads
5. Google Ad Transparency — alert if Rath starts running search/display ads
6. C-TEC Forum — expected mid-April candidate forum at Career and Technology Education Centers
7. Ohio SOS campaign finance — check filing for donor list and spending

WAYBACK MACHINE CHECK

• jeffrath.com: Parked domain since at least 2024 — no campaign website has ever existed at this URL
• No archived campaign materials found

KEY QUOTES (from public record)

Rath on his candidacy (Pataskala City Council):

Emphasized "managed growth, infrastructure and planning"

Rath on homeless ordinance (Newark City Council, Oct 2024):

Voted YES on Ordinance 24-36 (camping ban), 7-1 vote

Molly Ingold (who defeated Rath):

Defeated the 16-year council veteran with 65% of the vote

This report contains only publicly available information from news archives, government databases, social media, and public records. No private investigation was conducted. Bull Moose Strategy LLC does not engage in private investigation (ORC Chapter 4749).